Late last night I got a call from Bill on my cell phone after I finished the day campaigning in Tennessee. The first thing he said was, “I told you so.” As usual, he was right again.
Barack Obama won big in South Carolina. It was a trouncing, a drubbing, a runaway victory. That’s what you heard on every cable news channel from 11 seconds after the polls closed.
Obama beat Clinton in South Carolina. Or, did he?
Bill explained the results this way. South Carolina’s Democrats are comprised of about 50-percent blacks. Most of that vote when to Barack Obama.
The rest of the vote would be split three ways, a little for Obama, a little more for John Edwards, and a little more for me. That looks like Obama literally trounced me and John. Or, did he?
In reality, Obama got 80-percent of the black vote, but only 25-percent of the white vote. 20-percent of the black vote was split between John and me, while 75-percent of the white vote was split between John and me.
In other words, it was a day of ebony vs. ivory, black vs. white. Obama scored a narrow victory, and just barely got by the white candidates with a little over half the vote, and that was in a state where half the voters are black. Or, African-American, or whatever.
What would have happened if the primary election had been held in, say, New York or California, instead of predominantly black South Carolina?
It’s math. Again, Obama would have received 80-percent of the black vote, which would be barely 10-percent of the total vote, and maybe 15-percent of the white vote, for a grand total of maybe 30-percent, in which case he loses.
In an election that is 10-percent pure ebony vs. 90-percent pure ivory, and my ivory is pure, then Obama loses. It’s ebony vs. ivory. There’s more ivory states than ebony states, so when we add it all up, ivory wins.
Now if I could just figure out what to do with John Edwards. He keeps losing, but he doesn’t quit. I think he’s looking for a job.
One Response to “Ebony vs. Ivory”
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January 31st, 2008 at 11:46 am
You know, I thought Clinton was just screwing up by injecting a few racial barbs into the S. Carolina campaign, but now I’m not so sure that it was not just a well calculated attempt to marginalize Obama in future primary elections. Think about it. Bill does the dirty work, whites gets scared and vote for Hillary, Hillary stays above the fray, Bill apologizes and everyone forgives him as they always do, but in future primaries white people don’t vote as much for Obama as Clinton. Those people are very good at politics.