Riding the polls like a pony

What is so hard about riding a pony? Not much. They’re gentle enough creatures that children can ride them so long as there’s an adult nearby. Nobody wants to see a spooked horse.

Bill tells me that riding the latest polls is like riding a pony as a little girl. Sit up straight. Keep your eyes ahead. Don’t look down. Don’t kick the pony to make it go faster.

We constantly poll what voters want and adjust positions accordingly; never quickly, always with a subtle modification in language, no jolts, just constant adjustments.

Here’s how it works. Take the war in Iraq. We want to see it end, right? We want US troops to come home, right? The only real issue is when and how fast.

Last year I said, “I don’t think it’s in the best interests of our troops or our country… to withdraw troops from Iraq.” A quick and sudden withdrawal isn’t a good idea, and most voters we polled agreed with me.

Sentiments change. People are so fed up with the war in Iraq that more of them want to see the president, or the next president, end it now. So, this year I said, “I have been saying for some time that we need to bring our combat troops home from Iraq starting right now.” The difference is subtle, but gives me room to deal with reality.

If I were president right now, I could start bringing the troops home right now. Of course, it would be a few hundred at a time, and the reduction and redeployment would be over several years, but it would begin “right now” just like I said.

President Bush did something similar and it didn’t hurt his credibility or lower his standing in the approval polls. Bush said we need to escalate the war but he called it a surge. That’s more palatable.  The surge added another 30,000 troops to the total in Iraq.

The response of public opinion was swift. Americans want troops to begin pulling out now. So Bush announced that some troops would begin coming home immediately. Voters seem to have forgotten that there are more troops in Iraq than ever before and the immediate pullout will last for years.

That’s how politicians ride the polls. Treat polls like a pony. Guide it, nurture it, don’t give it a heavy load, be prepared to move left, right, or even stop, but always with the intent to go forward.

It works.